2014

Happy New Gregorian Year 2014 to all who will notice this entry. Let us resolve that this year we shall not repeat the mistakes of last year and try our best not to make new ones by trusting and consulting others before taking a decision. Let us also resolve that we shall treat everyone as a good person unless proven otherwisw and keep our lines of communication open via all conceivable channels for everyone.

Birthday

 

As you grow older, your heart should also grow larger meaning you should become more generous and forgiving.

I wish to thank everyone who called or sent a message on my birthday today. I am wondering about what I achieved during the last one year and what should be my targets for the next. One thing is obvious: I must do something admirable to make my next Birthday celebrations worthwhile. Since I have managed to stay alive during the last year, I should be able to do the same or even better next year. Do you agree with me?

World Oil Scenario

In April, 2007 I received following email which is self explanatory: DailyWealth customerservice@stansberryresearch.com via post.taipan2.net	9/4/07

The U.S. Govt's
Secret Colorado
Oil Discovery

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains
lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world — more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. Three companies have been chosen to lead the way. Test drilling has already begun...

Northwestern Colorado. August 2005.

The U.S. Energy Department announces the results of a land survey...

It was conducted to determine the official amount of oil a thousand feet deep in the Rocky Mountains...
They reported this stunning news:

We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth.

Here are the official estimates:

•	8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
•	18-times as much oil as Iraq
•	21-times as much oil as Kuwait
•	22-times as much oil as Iran
•	500-times as much oil as Yemen

...And it's all right here in the Western United States.

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says, "We've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East."
More than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped.
"That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today," reports The Denver Post.
When asked about America's least-publicized oil supply, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch said:
"The amounts of oil are staggering. Who would have guessed that in just Colorado and Utah, there is more recoverable oil than in the Middle East?"
Here's the kicker...
The U.S. government already owns the land. It's been right there under our noses the whole time.
In fact, the government's appointed a small group of companies to lead the way to the oil.
Test drilling has already begun.
And the profit forecasts are ridiculous. According to the RAND Corporation (a public-policy think tank for the government), this small region could produce:
Three million barrels of oil per day... That translates into more than $20 BILLION a year.
These are the conservative estimates. The U.S. Energy Dept. estimates an eventual output of 10 million barrels of oil per day. At that rate, the money flow would be even greater.

I've written this letter to tell you everything I've learned about this rarely publicized oil reserve... who's drilling it... and how to get a piece of the world's biggest, untapped oil supply — before it's too late.

In 2011 the following authentic table of world oil reserves was published:

 

Figure – 1: World oil reserves by country.

The history of world oil prices is given in the following graph In Figure-2. Note the steep rise in oil prices from 1999 when it was about 15 dollars which increased to $ 40 by 2005 when production of shale oil was started in USA and went up to $ 95 in 2011 almost in the same proportion as the increase in US shale oil production as shown in figure-3 below:



 

Figure -2: World crude oil prices from 1970 to 2011.



 

Figure -3: Shale oil production in USA.

Until 1973 oil was being sold by the he Arab and other oil exporters at USD 2 per barrel. In that year it was raised to USD 11 per barrel by OPEC countries. It was publicized as the Arab reaction to the Yom Kippur war. But it is interesting to note that at about this time production of North Sea oil became feasible at the prevailing prices and the regular Brent oil production started in 1975-6. Could it be that the idea of increasing oil prices actually originated in a European mind?

Similarly there seems no technically compelling justification for the steep rise in oil prices in the first decade of the 21^st century, except that it may have been artificially jacked up to a level that makes shale oil production feasible. The oil exporters obviously do not mind cutting production to a level that would maintain prices at nearly four times the fair value. However this new oil cartel including the US is cutting the throats of the other countries that are dependent on oil imports. In fact they are subsidizing the US shale oil production.

In this arrangement, obviously, the US will make a rapid economic recovery at the cost of many other nations. But how it is going to shape the world economy as a whole in future decades is an important question.

Related URLs:

http://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/opec-and-oil-prices-is-the-story-over.php

http://petroleuminsights.blogspot.com/2011/05/united-states-oil-production-from-shale.html

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=us&product=oil&graph=production

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=oil&graph=production

What and Why I Believe

You can read my book "What and Why I Believe"

Link: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/53723169/WHAT%20%26%20WHY%20I%20BELIEVE.pdf

Minimum donation for arranging hard copy publication: USD 30
Beneficiary: Mohammad Nasim
IBAN: PK16SCBL0000101561536702

Mehsud’s Murder

The fact that a coyote court in USA indicts someone does not make a premeditated murder a legitimate execution. It remains an assassination ordered by the US president. Even a mass-murderer deserves a fair trial.

It seems that American policies in this part of the world are based on an upside-down perception of realities. Neither the Afghan Taliban nor the TTP are militant cults anymore. Thanks to sustained conflict with extremist Christians and Hindus both have become popular movements. The TTP has more than 50 constituencies and it now has a stable pyramidal structure. Killing its top man will hardly make any more difference than the murder of a US president makes to that country. It was the realization of this fact that prompted the Pakistani leadership to treat them with some respect and negotiate peace with them.

The problems that the world is faced with today arise from a single cause that the political, economic and military leaderships of the USA are not on the same page. The thoughtful political leader ship is a hostage of the rash military and the economy is too dependent on military production and support. Even oil prices are being maintained at unacceptable levels throughout the world to keep the US shale business viable. The mystery of the standoff between the presidency and the house on budget is not over and horror may be yet to come.

The American addiction to bloodshed and arson cannot be justified in terms of sustained pursuit of retribution. If that were so, why do they expect the Japanese to forget Hiroshima and Nagasaki or the Palestinians to forget Sabra and Shatilla? Believe me when ever colonial rule is discussed in the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent, someone always reminds the audience of the Jalianwala Bagh massacre by the British as history and not as a mission for revenge.

One thing is obvious: the Americans are not reliable friends. The question now faced by the Pakistani leadership is whether it is preferable to have them as friends or enemies?

Paradise Found

http://whall.org/blog/2007/07/08/stuff-you-dont-want-to-misc-4/

Scientists had surmised that the Earth and the Moon had condensed from hot gases that had spilled off the Sun, but recent discoveries haves shown that the compositions of the Earth and the Moon differ from the Sun suggesting that the two were formed at some remote spot in space and launched in orbit around the Sun.  It is possible that the Earth was targeted to be inclined at a quarter of a right angle to its orbital plane, but actually it turned out to be 23.4 degrees i.e. one degree more, or that the year was meant to be exactly 360 days and not 365 and a quarter as it actually is or that the lunar cycle was meant to be exactly thirty days but it strayed a little to twenty nine and a half or so. A 30 day lunar month and a 360 day year would seemingly have been a perfect combination; the phase of the moon would indicate the date and the 12 constellations would show the month and if we looked keenly enough in the sky we might find a way to count the years as well. But since we cannot change it we have no choice but to accept it as God’s wisdom. However, we can change the course of rivers, harness the winds, seed clouds for rain and defy gravity by flying machines to our advantage as God has given us authority over the material universe – and we must advise and help others in finding the right way of life. Similarly, disease, natural disasters and evils exist not because those were intended by God but as a consequence of the imperfections of the creations; and God has set in motion a process of evolution and guidance of human beings for the rectification of these defects and for improvement in the quality of His creations. Adam failed the first test he was put to and Satan rebelled on the first command he did not like. The merciful God surely would not have built maladies, perversions and disasters into His perfect plan of creation.

 

Even more important is the fact that all the tangible knowledge of Physics, chemistry, biology, electronics, mechanics and much of mathematics that is or will ever be written in books is already at work in the human body and in the environment around us. Birds can fly because they are aerodynamically designed by God and they are born with the knowledge of aerodynamics so that they may glide or propel themselves in air and take off and land safely. Man is not discovering Science, but only learning to express what is already inherent in him, and so is woman. The rest is speculation.

God has repeatedly indicated that one day He will destroy this imperfect world and create a new perfect world (Paradise) where only noble souls will reside. It will perhaps be a world free of diseases, parasites, germs, bacteria, viruses of predator animals; the lunar cycle would be exactly 30 days and the year exactly 360 days; there will be no earthquakes, floods, tsunamis or tornados.    

In the building of the new world, obviously the knowledge and techniques developed by human beings over centuries would also be utilized. Some examples are the technique of placing satellites in exact orbits, disease free high-yield crops etc. and technologies yet to be developed such as the control of volcanic activity. And before the doomsday arrives, there may be the next evolution of human beings who may have two hearts and two pancreases with a much improved central nervous system.

Irritating Cricket in Dubai

The pathetic performance of the Pakistani cricket team against South Africa in the 2^nd test at Dubai is certain to attract great ire from the public. After the impressive victory in the first test it was thought that the right prescription has been found which makes the later debacle even bitterer.

I had an opportunity of watching the first day’s game of the fateful test match. The South African team was visibly motivated, focused and enthusiastic; whereas the Pakistani batsmen seemed distracted and cagey.

It seems that due to some psychological handicap the Pakistani cricketers and perhaps other teams also are unable to respond to opposition’s enthusiasm with equal enthusiasm and vigor. They seem to get cowed down. It is strange that the team management is unable to recognize this weakness and devise means to motivate the players before the game.

Maybe it is a national trait. The inability to motivate the nation is quite apparent in our political leaders and that is why people welcome military dictators who make motivational speeches after overthrowing political governments.

In my professional career I have found that motivation is the best management tool and it can transform mediocrity into brilliance.

Talking to Taliban

 

They are all willing to talk. The American government is trying to talk to the Afghan Taliban to establish peace in Afghanistan and avoid attacks on their retreating forces. The Pakistan government is trying to talk to The Pakistani Taliban to end the insurgency and regular killings of innocent civilians. If all those concerned had opened their mouths a few years earlier many innocent lives would have been saved. In fact if the Americans would have tried to negotiate with the Al-Qaida instead of firing Tomahawks on them from aircraft carriers near Pakistani shores, 9/11 could have been avoided.

So what will happen if the negotiations between the Americans and the Taliban succeed? The American and other NATO troops will get safe exit from Afghanistan, the Taliban will participate in the next elections and once again there will be the rule of Mullah Omar in Afghanistan.

 

The post-2014 situation in Afghanistan would hardly be any different from the pre-9/11 situation except for two changes:

a)      There will be no Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan.

b)      There will be a massive Indian presence and trade which was non-existent in the pre-9/11 era.

So what was the real objective of the whole exercise that cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives and who was behind all this?

 

Most Powerful Militaries In The World

 Compiled from MSN News Slide Show.

1.    USA: Defense Budget: $689,591,000,000
                Active Military Personnel: 1,477,896
2.    Russia: Defense Budget: $64,000,000,000
                   Active Military Personnel: 1,200,000  
3.    China: Defense Budget: $129,272,000,000
                  Active Military Personnel: 2,285,000
4.    India: Defense Budget: $44,282,000,000
                 Active Military Personnel: 1,325,000.
5.    UK:  Defense Budget: $57,875,170,000
               Active Military Personnel: 224,500
6.    France: Defense Budget: $58,244,000,000
                    Active Military Personnel: 362,485
7.    Germany: Defense Budget: $43,478,000,000
                        Active Military Personnel: 148,996
8.    South Korea: Defense Budget: $28,280,000,000
                             Active Military Personnel: 653,000
9.    Italy: Defense Budget: $31,946,000,000
                Active Military Personnel: 293,202.
10.  Brazil: Defense Budget: $31,576,000,000
                  Active Military Personnel: 371,199
11.  Turkey: Defense Budget: 18,687,000,000
                    Active Military Personnel:612,920
12.  Pakistan: Defense Budget: 5,685,000,000
                      Active Military Personnel:617,920
13.  Israel: Defense Budget: 15,209,000,000
                  Active Military Personnel:187,000
14.  Egypt: Defense Budget: 4,107,000,000
                   Active Military Personnel:489,000
15.  Indonesia: Defense Budget: 5,220,000,000
                         Active Military Personnel:438,000 

Point to note is that the defense budget of USA alone is more than the combined budget of the remaining 14 countries. I wonder who pays for the US forces stationed in the countries defeated/captured/liberated etc. during the second World War and in recent years. On the face of it one would think that either the US intends to attack and conquer all countries of the world or it is afraid that as a consequence of its guilt all other countries may someday unite and attack it.

.......

 

Deaf Justice?

MSN NEWS

Posted : 2013/09/17 10:52 am

Court ruling fires British debate on Muslim veils

 

(Reuters) - A British judge ruled on Monday that a Muslim woman could not give evidence at her trial wearing a full-face veil, sparking debate about whether Britain should follow other European countries and ban Islamic veils in schools and public places.

But in a significant ruling on Monday, a Muslim woman, who argued that removing her veil in court breached her human rights, was told she could not wear it when giving evidence.

"ELEPHANT IN THE COURTROOM"

"The niqab has become the elephant in the courtroom," said Judge Peter Murphy, who also made the compromise that she could wear her veil at all other times during a trial later this year over accusations she had intimidated a witness in another case.

The woman, who cannot be named for legal reasons and who only started wearing a niqab in May 2012, had argued it was against her beliefs to uncover her face in front of men who were not members of her close family.

But Murphy said it would "drive a coach and horses through the way in which justice has been administered in the courts of England and Wales for centuries" if jurors could not observe her reactions.

"No tradition or practice, whether religious or otherwise, can claim to occupy such a privileged position that the rule of law, open justice and the adversarial trial process are sacrificed to accommodate it," he said.

"That is not a discrimination against religion. It is a matter of upholding the rule of law in a democratic society."

Murphy, whose ruling will serve as a precedent, said he hoped parliament or a higher court would provide a definitive verdict "sooner rather than later", while the woman's lawyer said it was too early to say whether she would appeal.

The above clippings from MSN news are shattering for someone who believed that courts of justice relied on material evidence and content of the statements of the witnesses. But unfortunately, judge Murphy in his cliché riddled exhortations seems to give the impression that British justice relies too heavily on facial expressions and nuances. I wonder what sort of training judges and jurists receive before being entrusted with venerable positions.

Without insinuating anything it seems that there is also room for suspicion that some judges or members of jury who may have a weak hearing might be relying on lip-reading in the pursuit of their duties. In such a case, indeed, their right to lip-read comes into direct conflict with a witness’s right to practice personal privacy in her own way. But an order to strip the niqab is hardly any different from an order to strip any other piece of clothing, although it seems to make sense if there is no other way of establishing an individual’s identity. There seems to be no such issue in this case.

This leads to the obvious question whether or not judges and members of jury need to be periodically certified to have soundness of vision and hearing assuming that their reasoning is guaranteed. At the moment I am reading a book called “Blind Spot” by Mahzarin R. Banaji and Anthony G. Greenwald (Publisher Delacorte Press) which lists a number of simple tests for establishing an individual’s hidden biases. It would be a good idea if judges and jurists all over the world took these tests voluntarily and made allowances for the results they achieve.