Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Friday, July 26, 2024

The Valley of Death

 

Almost everywhere the life and training of soldiers and cadet is glorified to ensure that young men and women will continue to join this dangerous profession. 

The universal motto of a soldier can be summed up as, “kill the enemy without asking any question and do not regret it”. That is how wars have been won since time immemorial. Those who need the military for their survival, it is bravery, discipline, and pride.

However, in a world of changing realities, both real and virtual, one must do a ruthlessly realistic analysis of the soldier’s training.

By virtue of his training based on professional necessities،, a soldier or cadet develops three distinct character traits.

1.    1.   Has no respect for human life. The instinct of mercy has to be erased to ensure that he will not hesitate before shooting the enemy. He should even kill unarmed civilians without hesitation if ordered to do so.

 

2.       2.  Obeys orders against his better judgment.

I quote what Tennyson wrote about one hundred seventy years ago:


“Forward, the Light Brigade!”

Was there a man dismayed?

Not though the soldier knew  

Someone had blundered. 

Theirs not to make reply,

 Theirs not to reason why,

 Theirs but to do and die.

 Into the valley of Death

 Rode the six hundred.

 

Yes. All units and all soldiers must act according to specific orders meant for them as they form parts of a larger plan. If everyone acted on his own judgement, the planning would fail. So, it seems pertinent to condition the soldiers and officers to wait for orders and blindly obey them without thinking whether it is right or wrong. A soldier or officer cannot afford any original thinking.

3.     3.   Does not take responsibility for his actions. A soldier is likely to be court marshalled and even shot dead for not obeying orders. Which means that everything a soldier does is effectively in self-defence. So, the conscience of a soldier must be crushed to such a degree that he does not regret any of his actions and hesitate in repeating them.

This is all very good as long as officers and soldiers are dedicated to military duties related to armed offence or defense against an enemy. But what would happen if such a person is placed in a civilian administrative position? How will a department perform if its head did not have respect for human life, could not take decisions but waited for orders and finally did not take responsibility for his actions? The simple answer is disaster. The department would become dysfunctional.

This is exactly what has happened in countries that have seen long periods of military dictatorships during which civilian institutions were intensely infiltrated by active-duty and retired military personnel. The bureaucracy and police got totally corrupted and crippled, and anti-government feelings became common trait. Worse still, the political scene came to be dominated by lackeys and cronies of the military dictators. Now, no amount of foreign assistance can restore the crumbled economy unless the active and retired servicemen are completely flushed out of the entire system and the state within the state is demolished.

 .

 

Thursday, July 06, 2017

The Great Bluff



As the judicial probe of impropriety against prime minister Nawaz Sharif approaches its logical conclusion, there is a crescendo of noises by the ruling party that the imminent disqualification of their leader would apply brakes to the wheels of progress in the country. It is true that the motorcade of the prime minister’s daughter has grown from 3 to 15 vehicles and some highly cosmetic infrastructure development projects have emerged in Lahore which are of little use to the general public. There has been no improvement in education, health or water, gas and power supplies services. Crimes are as prevalent, roads are as unsafe and jobs are as scarce as before the PML(N) government came into power.

Let us look at some of the statistics.

1.       Power Supply: The government has been claiming that there has been tremendous economic and industrial progress as in the following tweet of the Defense and Power minister:




If you add the average generation and shortfall you get the total electrical power demand for the year in question. Simple arithmetic giver the average demand figures as follows:

Year                                         June 2012            June 2013            June 2016            June 2017
Total Power Demand               17070                   19742                 19684                  20841

This shows that there has been a growth of only 5.57 percent in 4 years ie less than 1.4 % annually which is even less than population growth rate. Thus there has been no growth in either industry or people’s standard of living. Actually there has been perceptible deterioration.

2.       Trade: The following trade data has been taken from the government website and tells a sad story of the utter failure of the businessman prime minister:

There has been a steady fall in the volume and value of exports over the last 4 year period and the government has done nothing to arrest the decline.  The textile and garment manufacturers have been running from pillar to post but have not had any success.

3.       Stock Exchange:  The success of Karachi Stock Exchange now Pakistan Stock Exchange has been told as the great achievement of the incumbent government. Here is the 5 year progress report taken from their own website:


Above chart shows that although the 100 index has been blown out of proportion, the number of listed companies has remained stagnant and a meager increase in base capital has taken place. The only IPO in 2017 so far was for an iron works owned by Sharif family.  During this period there have been about half a dozen upheaval and mini-crashes in which more than 4% market capitalization was lost in one day causing heavy losses to small investors.

4.       Currency Parity: When the present govt. came to power in 2013, the PKR-USD parity stood at Rs. 108. Mr. Dar played some quick tricks and brought it down to Rs.98 and touted it as a financial miracle. Soon afterwards heavy borrowings were made from WB and others and the parity was maintained at on average at Rs. 104 against the demands of exporters. Recently it jumped back to Rs. 108 and SBP declared that it reflects the current economic situation. The result of maintaining low parity is that Pakistani families that depend on remittances from family members working abroad have lost nearly 400 billion rupees in money exchange and textile and garments have become uncompetitive and reduced production and cut jobs. The only beneficiaries of this policy are those who have been sending their money abroad for buying properties in Dubai, Qatar and UK etc as they got more dollars for their Rupees.  It has also helped to show higher GDP in dollar terms to fool the world.

If one takes all above facts into consideration, it seems that the government of Mr. Nawaz Sharif has been working intentionally to harm national interests and the people of Pakistan. Take into account the Dawn story plant against the armed forces, the tirades against the judiciary and the family friendship with pm Modi and other Indians with deteriorating border situation and silence on the arrest of Indian terror mastermind one can’t help but wonder if the stage is being set for something like the French Revolution.

Swift justice and early elections may avert a disaster, I hope and pray.

..



Tuesday, April 05, 2016

World Economies Ranking


World Economies Ranking

2002 (Actual WB)
2012 (Actual WB)
2022 (Projected at Same Rate)
Rank in World
Country
  GDP World %
Country
 GDP World %
Country
  GDP World %
1
United States
32.57
United States
21.80
China
23.31
2
Japan
12.45
China
11.41
United States
11.33
3
Germany
6.21
Japan
8.03
Russian Federation
5.61
4
United Kingdom
4.86
Germany
4.77
Brazil
5.45
5
France
4.44
France
3.62
Japan
4.24
6
China
3.86
United Kingdom
3.55
India
3.05
7
Italy
3.7
Brazil
3.25
Germany
2.87
8
Canada
2.27
Italy
2.80
Australia
2.85
9
Spain
2.04
Russian Federation
2.72
France
2.28
10
Mexico
2
Canada
2.47
Canada
2.12
11
India
1.57
India
2.47
Indonesia
2.05
12
Korea South
1.44
Australia
2.07
United Kingdom
1.96
13
Brazil
1.4
Spain
1.81
Argentina
1.78
14
Netherlands
1.31
Korea (South)
1.65
Nigeria
1.71
15
Australia
1.24
Mexico
1.60
Italy
1.62
16
Russian Federation
1.08
Indonesia
1.24
Saudi Arabia
1.36
17
Switzerland
0.83
Netherlands
1.12
Iran, Islamic Rep.
1.28
18
Belgium
0.77
Turkey
1.06
Turkey
1.27
19
Sweden
0.75
Saudi Arabia
0.99
Spain
1.21
20
Austria
0.64
Switzerland
0.90
Korea, Rep. (South)
1.17
21
Saudi Arabia
0.6
Iran, Islamic Rep.
0.79
Mexico
0.90
22
Norway
0.59
Sweden
0.73
Qatar
0.89
23
Poland
0.59
Norway
0.69
Kazakhstan
0.80
24
Turkey
0.57
Poland
0.67
Venezuela, RB
0.75
25
Denmark
0.54
Belgium
0.67
Netherlands
0.70
26
Indonesia
0.54
Nigeria
0.62
Switzerland
0.70
27
Greece
0.42
Austria
0.55
Colombia
0.66
28
Finland
0.41
Thailand
0.54
South Africa
0.65
29
Thailand
0.39
South Africa
0.54
Norway
0.63
30
Ireland
0.38
Venezuela, RB
0.51
United Arab Emirate
0.60
31
Portugal
0.38
United Arab Emirate
0.50
Poland
0.60
32
Iran,
0.33
Denmark
0.43
Thailand
0.56
33
South Africa
0.33
Malaysia
0.42
Sweden
0.53
34
Israel
0.32
Singapore
0.39
Angola
0.49
35
Malaysia
0.3
Chile
0.36
Chile
0.47
36
Venezuela,
0.29
Egypt, Arab Rep.
0.35
Malaysia
0.47
37
Singapore
0.28
Israel
0.35
Belgium
0.46
38
Egypt,
0.27
Finland
0.35
Singapore
0.44
39
Philippines
0.24
Philippines
0.34
Kuwait
0.38
40
Czech Republic
0.22
Greece
0.33
Egypt, Arab Rep.
0.37
41
United Arab Emirate
0.22
Ireland
0.30
Austria
0.37
42
Chile
0.2
Pakistan
0.30
Algeria
0.37
43
Pakistan
0.2
Portugal
0.29
Philippines
0.37
44
New Zealand
0.18
Czech Republic
0.28
Azerbaijan
0.36
45
Peru
0.17
Peru
0.26
Ukraine
0.35
46
Bangladesh
0.15
Qatar
0.26
Pakistan
0.33
47
Nigeria
0.13
Kuwait
0.23
Peru
0.32
48
Vietnam
0.11
New Zealand
0.22
Romania
0.31
49
Kuwait
0.1
Vietnam
0.21
Vietnam
0.30
50
Libya
0.06
Bangladesh
0.18
Denmark
0.28
51
Luxembourg
0.06
Libya
0.11
Israel
0.26
52
Oman
0.06
Oman
0.10
Czech Republic
0.25
53
Lebanon
0.05
Sri Lanka
0.09
Finland
0.22