I wish to thank everyone who called or sent a message on my
birthday today. I am wondering about what I achieved during the last one year
and what should be my targets for the next. One thing is obvious: I must do
something admirable to make my next Birthday celebrations worthwhile. Since I have
managed to stay alive during the last year, I should be able to do the same or
even better next year. Do you agree with me?
Looking at life without prejudice to promote evolution of civilized human thought. In the next 1000 years, all erstwhile scientific, social, moral, economic and other theories and beliefs are going to be challenged and improved. Join me and take the torch forward.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Birthday
Saturday, November 30, 2013
World Oil Scenario
In April, 2007 I received following email which is self
explanatory:
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9/4/07
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The U.S. Govt's
Secret Colorado
Oil Discovery
Secret Colorado
Oil Discovery
Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the
surface of the Rocky Mountains
lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world — more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. Three companies have been chosen to lead the way. Test drilling has already begun...
lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world — more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. Three companies have been chosen to lead the way. Test drilling has already begun...
Northwestern Colorado. August 2005.
The U.S. Energy Department announces
the results of a land survey...
It was conducted to determine the
official amount of oil a thousand feet deep in the Rocky Mountains...They reported this stunning news:
We have more oil inside our borders,
than all the other proven reserves on earth.
Here are the official estimates:
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8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
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18-times as much oil as Iraq
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21-times as much oil as Kuwait
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22-times as much oil as Iran
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500-times as much oil as Yemen
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...And it's all right here in the
Western United States.
James Bartis, lead researcher with
the study says, "We've got more oil in this very compact area than the
entire Middle East."More than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped.
"That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today," reports The Denver Post.
When asked about America's least-publicized oil supply, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch said:
"The amounts of oil are staggering. Who would have guessed that in just Colorado and Utah, there is more recoverable oil than in the Middle East?"
Here's the kicker...
The U.S. government already owns the land. It's been right there under our noses the whole time.
In fact, the government's appointed a small group of companies to lead the way to the oil.
Test drilling has already begun.
And the profit forecasts are ridiculous. According to the RAND Corporation (a public-policy think tank for the government), this small region could produce:
Three million barrels of oil per day... That translates into more than $20 BILLION a year.
These are the conservative estimates. The U.S. Energy Dept. estimates an eventual output of 10 million barrels of oil per day. At that rate, the money flow would be even greater.
I've written this letter to tell you
everything I've learned about this rarely publicized oil reserve... who's
drilling it... and how to get a piece of the world's biggest, untapped oil
supply — before it's too late.
In 2011 the following authentic table of world oil reserves
was published:
Figure – 1: World oil reserves by country.
The history of world oil prices is given in the following
graph In Figure-2. Note the steep rise in oil prices from 1999 when it was
about 15 dollars which increased to $ 40 by 2005 when production of shale oil
was started in USA and went up to $ 95 in 2011 almost in the same proportion as
the increase in US shale oil production as shown in figure-3 below:
Figure -2: World crude oil prices from 1970 to 2011.
Figure -3: Shale oil production
in USA.
Until 1973 oil was being sold by
the he Arab and other oil exporters at USD 2 per barrel. In that year it was
raised to USD 11 per barrel by OPEC countries. It was publicized as the Arab
reaction to the Yom Kippur war. But it is interesting to note that at about this
time production of North Sea oil became feasible at the prevailing prices and
the regular Brent oil production started in 1975-6. Could it be that the idea
of increasing oil prices actually originated in a European mind?
Similarly there seems no
technically compelling justification for the steep rise in oil prices in the
first decade of the 21st century, except that it may have been
artificially jacked up to a level that makes shale oil production feasible. The
oil exporters obviously do not mind cutting production to a level that would maintain
prices at nearly four times the fair value. However this new oil cartel
including the US is cutting the throats of the other countries that are
dependent on oil imports. In fact they are subsidizing the US shale oil
production.
In this arrangement, obviously,
the US will make a rapid economic recovery at the cost of many other nations.
But how it is going to shape the world economy as a whole in future decades is
an important question.
Related URLs:
Friday, November 15, 2013
What and Why I Believe
You can read my book "What and Why I Believe"
Link: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/53723169/WHAT%20%26%20WHY%20I%20BELIEVE.pdf
Minimum donation for arranging hard copy publication: USD 30
Beneficiary: Mohammad Nasim
IBAN: PK16SCBL0000101561536702
Link: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/53723169/WHAT%20%26%20WHY%20I%20BELIEVE.pdf
Minimum donation for arranging hard copy publication: USD 30
Beneficiary: Mohammad Nasim
IBAN: PK16SCBL0000101561536702
Monday, November 04, 2013
Mehsud’s Murder
The fact that a coyote court in USA indicts someone does not
make a premeditated murder a legitimate execution. It remains an assassination ordered
by the US president. Even a mass-murderer deserves a fair trial.
It seems that American policies in this part of the world
are based on an upside-down perception of realities. Neither the Afghan Taliban
nor the TTP are militant cults anymore. Thanks to sustained conflict with
extremist Christians and Hindus both have become popular movements. The TTP has
more than 50 constituencies and it now has a stable pyramidal structure.
Killing its top man will hardly make any more difference than the murder of a
US president makes to that country. It was the realization of this fact that
prompted the Pakistani leadership to treat them with some respect and negotiate
peace with them.
The problems that the world is faced with today arise from a
single cause that the political, economic and military leaderships of the USA
are not on the same page. The thoughtful political leader ship is a hostage of
the rash military and the economy is too dependent on military production and
support. Even oil prices are being maintained at unacceptable levels throughout
the world to keep the US shale business viable. The mystery of the standoff
between the presidency and the house on budget is not over and horror may be
yet to come.
The American addiction to bloodshed and arson cannot be
justified in terms of sustained pursuit of retribution. If that were so, why do
they expect the Japanese to forget Hiroshima and Nagasaki or the Palestinians
to forget Sabra and Shatilla? Believe me when ever colonial rule is discussed
in the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent, someone always reminds the audience of the
Jalianwala Bagh massacre by the British as history and not as a mission for
revenge.
One thing is obvious: the Americans are not reliable
friends. The question now faced by the Pakistani leadership is whether it is
preferable to have them as friends or enemies?
Labels:
drone,
hakeemullah,
pakistan,
taliban,
TTP,
waziristan
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Paradise Found
Scientists
had surmised that the Earth and the Moon had condensed from hot gases that had
spilled off the Sun, but recent discoveries haves shown that the compositions
of the Earth and the Moon differ from the Sun suggesting that the two were
formed at some remote spot in space and launched in orbit around the Sun. It is possible that the Earth was targeted to
be inclined at a quarter of a right angle to its orbital plane, but actually it
turned out to be 23.4 degrees i.e. one degree more, or that the year was meant
to be exactly 360 days and not 365 and a quarter as it actually is or that the
lunar cycle was meant to be exactly thirty days but it strayed a little to
twenty nine and a half or so. A 30 day lunar month and a 360 day year would
seemingly have been a perfect combination; the phase of the moon would indicate
the date and the 12 constellations would show the month and if we looked keenly
enough in the sky we might find a way to count the years as well. But since we
cannot change it we have no choice but to accept it as God’s wisdom. However,
we can change the course of rivers, harness the winds, seed clouds for rain and
defy gravity by flying machines to our advantage as God has given us authority
over the material universe – and we must advise and help others in finding the
right way of life. Similarly, disease, natural disasters and evils exist not
because those were intended by God but as a consequence of the imperfections of
the creations; and God has set in motion a process of evolution and guidance of
human beings for the rectification of these defects and for improvement in the
quality of His creations. Adam failed the first test he was put to and Satan
rebelled on the first command he did not like. The merciful God surely would
not have built maladies, perversions and disasters into His perfect plan of
creation.
Even
more important is the fact that all the tangible knowledge of Physics, chemistry, biology, electronics,
mechanics and much of mathematics that is or will ever be written
in books is already at work in the human body and in the environment around us.
Birds can fly because they are aerodynamically designed by God and they are
born with the knowledge of aerodynamics so that they may glide or propel
themselves in air and take off and land safely. Man is not discovering Science,
but only learning to express what is already inherent in him, and so is woman.
The rest is speculation.
God has
repeatedly indicated that one day He will destroy this imperfect world and
create a new perfect world (Paradise) where only noble souls will reside. It
will perhaps be a world free of diseases, parasites, germs, bacteria, viruses
of predator animals; the lunar cycle would be exactly 30 days and the year
exactly 360 days; there will be no earthquakes, floods, tsunamis or tornados.
In the
building of the new world, obviously the knowledge and techniques developed by
human beings over centuries would also be utilized. Some examples are the
technique of placing satellites in exact orbits, disease free high-yield crops
etc. and technologies yet to be developed such as the control of volcanic
activity. And before the doomsday arrives, there may be the next evolution of
human beings who may have two hearts and two pancreases with a much improved
central nervous system.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Irritating Cricket in Dubai
The pathetic performance of the Pakistani cricket team
against South Africa in the 2nd test at Dubai is certain to attract
great ire from the public. After the impressive victory in the first test it
was thought that the right prescription has been found which makes the later
debacle even bitterer.
I had an opportunity of watching the first day’s game of the
fateful test match. The South African team was visibly motivated, focused and
enthusiastic; whereas the Pakistani batsmen seemed distracted and cagey.
It seems that due to some psychological handicap the
Pakistani cricketers and perhaps other teams also are unable to respond to
opposition’s enthusiasm with equal enthusiasm and vigor. They seem to get cowed
down. It is strange that the team management is unable to recognize this weakness and
devise means to motivate the players before the game.
Maybe it is a national trait. The inability to motivate the
nation is quite apparent in our political leaders and that is why people
welcome military dictators who make motivational speeches after overthrowing
political governments.
In my professional career I have found that motivation is
the best management tool and it can transform mediocrity into brilliance.
Talking to Taliban
They are all willing to talk. The American government is
trying to talk to the Afghan Taliban to establish peace in Afghanistan and
avoid attacks on their retreating forces. The Pakistan government is trying to
talk to The Pakistani Taliban to end the insurgency and regular killings of
innocent civilians. If all those concerned had opened their mouths a few years
earlier many innocent lives would have been saved. In fact if the Americans
would have tried to negotiate with the Al-Qaida instead of firing Tomahawks on
them from aircraft carriers near Pakistani shores, 9/11 could have been
avoided.
So what will happen if the negotiations between the
Americans and the Taliban succeed? The American and other NATO troops will get
safe exit from Afghanistan, the Taliban will participate in the next elections
and once again there will be the rule of Mullah Omar in Afghanistan.
The post-2014 situation in Afghanistan would hardly be any
different from the pre-9/11 situation except for two changes:
a)
There will be no Osama Bin
Laden and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan.
b)
There will be a massive
Indian presence and trade which was non-existent in the pre-9/11 era.
So what was the real objective of the whole exercise that
cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives and who was behind all this?
Monday, October 07, 2013
Most Powerful Militaries In The World
Active Military Personnel: 1,477,896
2. Russia: Defense Budget: $64,000,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 1,200,000
3. China: Defense Budget: $129,272,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 2,285,000
4. India: Defense Budget: $44,282,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 1,325,000.
5. UK: Defense Budget: $57,875,170,000
Active Military Personnel: 224,500
6. France: Defense Budget: $58,244,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 362,485
7. Germany: Defense Budget: $43,478,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 148,996
8. South Korea: Defense Budget: $28,280,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 653,000
9. Italy: Defense Budget: $31,946,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 293,202.
10. Brazil: Defense Budget: $31,576,000,000
Active Military Personnel: 371,199
11. Turkey: Defense Budget: 18,687,000,000
Active Military Personnel:612,920
12. Pakistan: Defense Budget: 5,685,000,000
Active Military Personnel:617,920
13. Israel: Defense Budget: 15,209,000,000
Active Military Personnel:187,000
14. Egypt: Defense Budget: 4,107,000,000
Active Military Personnel:489,000
15. Indonesia: Defense Budget: 5,220,000,000
Active Military Personnel:438,000
Point to note is that the defense budget of USA alone is more than the combined budget of the remaining 14 countries. I wonder who pays for the US forces stationed in the countries defeated/captured/liberated etc. during the second World War and in recent years. On the face of it one would think that either the US intends to attack and conquer all countries of the world or it is afraid that as a consequence of its guilt all other countries may someday unite and attack it.
.......
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Deaf Justice?
MSN NEWS
Posted : 2013/09/17
10:52 am
Court ruling fires British debate
on Muslim veils
(Reuters) - A British judge ruled on Monday that a Muslim woman could not give
evidence at her trial wearing a full-face veil, sparking debate about whether
Britain should follow other European countries and ban Islamic veils in schools
and public places.
But in a significant ruling on Monday, a
Muslim woman, who argued that removing her veil in court breached her human
rights, was told she could not wear it when giving evidence.
"ELEPHANT IN THE COURTROOM"
"The niqab has become the elephant in
the courtroom," said Judge Peter Murphy, who also made the compromise that
she could wear her veil at all other times during a trial later this year over
accusations she had intimidated a witness in another case.
The woman, who cannot be named for legal
reasons and who only started wearing a niqab in May 2012, had argued it was
against her beliefs to uncover her face in front of men who were not members of
her close family.
But Murphy said it would "drive a
coach and horses through the way in which justice has been administered in the
courts of England and Wales for centuries" if jurors could not observe her
reactions.
"No tradition or practice, whether
religious or otherwise, can claim to occupy such a privileged position that the
rule of law, open justice and the adversarial trial process are sacrificed to
accommodate it," he said.
"That is not a discrimination against
religion. It is a matter of upholding the rule of law in a democratic
society."
Murphy, whose ruling will serve as a
precedent, said he hoped parliament or a higher court would provide a
definitive verdict "sooner rather than later", while the woman's
lawyer said it was too early to say whether she would appeal.
The above clippings from MSN news are
shattering for someone who believed that courts of justice relied on material
evidence and content of the statements of the witnesses. But unfortunately,
judge Murphy in his cliché riddled exhortations seems to give the impression
that British justice relies too heavily on facial expressions and nuances. I
wonder what sort of training judges and jurists receive before being entrusted
with venerable positions.
Without insinuating anything it seems that
there is also room for suspicion that some judges or members of jury who may have a
weak hearing might be relying on lip-reading in the pursuit of their duties. In
such a case, indeed, their right to lip-read comes into direct conflict with a
witness’s right to practice personal privacy in her own way. But an order to
strip the niqab is hardly any different from an order to strip any other piece
of clothing, although it seems to make sense if there is no other way of
establishing an individual’s identity. There seems to be no such issue in this
case.
This leads to the obvious question whether or
not judges and members of jury need to be periodically certified to have
soundness of vision and hearing assuming that their reasoning is guaranteed. At
the moment I am reading a book called “Blind Spot” by Mahzarin R. Banaji and
Anthony G. Greenwald (Publisher Delacorte Press) which lists a number of simple
tests for establishing an individual’s hidden biases. It would be a good idea
if judges and jurists all over the world took these tests voluntarily and made
allowances for the results they achieve.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
A Letter to the Prime Minister
Mr. Muhammad
Nawaz Sharif,
Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
Your Excellency,
I was much impressed with your address to the nation and the
initiatives mentioned therein. I am sure that your team of capable senior
executives and experts must have worked out detailed plans taking into account
all the possible and selecting the best options. I do not claim to be wiser
than your team, but consider it my national duty to point out the following
points that come to my mind just in case something may have escaped their
meticulous attention.
1.
Chinese Mega-projects: In
finalizing the various ambitious megaprojects with the Chinese government such
as the highways, railways, mass-transit, power and other projects we should
ensure that Pakistani consultants, engineers and contractors get a substantial
participation at all stages of the projects. This will help our local talent to
acquire the technical know-how and continue similar work in all areas in
Pakistan in future independently while maintaining the same quality. This will
also help in the future maintenance of the projects. You may be aware that a
major reason not being able to fully utilize the installed power capacity in
Pakistan is that the power plants are dependent on foreign experts for annual
maintenance and breakdown services. I would also suggest that our Chinese
friends be persuaded to carry out as much manufacturing, fabrication and
assembly of the hardware in Pakistan as possible.
2.
Negotiations with Taliban:
This topic has been discussed extensively in press, television and drawing
rooms, but there seems to be no agreement on the strategy. I think that we
should try to persuade the Taliban that we share their dream of establishing an
ideal Islamic state in Pakistan based on Shariah as good as or even better than
in Saudi Arabia. This has been possible for the Saudis because they have great
economic power due to which they can resist external pressures. If we try to
implement Shariah fully at this stage, we may face the same fate as
Afghanistan. So the Taliban should give us 10 years to develop our economic and
military strength to such a level that we may be able to resist external
pressures successfully. In the life of nations 10 years is not a long time. The
Taliban may be allowed to keep their weapons, but they should be under oath not
to use them against Pakistanis. They should also agree to suspend their
overseas military operations and concentrate on dawah. Meanwhile, GOP
should offer large numbers of scholarships to youth from Waziristan to study in
schools, colleges and universities. Road works and other development projects
should also be started in Waziristan.
3.
Law & order in Karachi:
The only effective way of maintaining law and order in a city or town is
frequent police patrol of roads and lanes. This is how the Americans changed
the face of New York and Chicago which were worse than Karachi in the 1960s.
Unfortunately over the past decade or so police patrols seem to have completely
disappeared from the roads and lanes of Karachi. All the police and other
security machinery is totally committed to guard and escort duties for
ministers, high officials, foreign missions and VIP visitors. An expensive
camera surveillance system for the entire city was installed but it seems to
have stopped working. Perhaps a special federal security police may be formed
which could be deployed for frequent and effective patrolling of the roads and
lanes of troubled cities and towns and should be sufficiently disciplined and
controlled so that it does not indulge in harassment of or extortion from the
citizens.
Yoyr sincerely,
Muhammad Nasim
mnasim_99@ yahoo.com
Note: I would have sent this directly to the PM, but could not find his email address.
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