Sunday, March 29, 2020

Man-made Epidemic


On 18 March 1915 Bill Gates gave Ted talk on possible next virus epidemic and its consequences. He is likely to have been helped by some conaciencious Indian born American senior executives of Microsoft.
Ebola virus was contained within 3 West African countries by effective isolation from the rest of the world.
On 5 August 2019 India embarked on an experiment of large scale lockdown involving 8 million people in Kashmir. The human tragedy in the denial of all fundamental human rights to 8 million people for no reason should have shaken the earth. But everyone except some nondescript busybodies chose to look the other way. India must have shared the data acquired in the first three months with its close allies.
It takes only a few hours to do a complete dna sequencing of a virus and there is adequate data on characteristics and influence of dna fragments to be able to splice them into new viruses of desired characteristics.
US, India and Israel formed a nexus to harm and eventually destroy the emerging international influence of China.
On 31 December 2019 WHO reported mysterious pneumonia sickening dozens in China which was later recognized as novel Corpnavirus and the outbreak was named Covid-19.
China imposed complete lockdown on Wuhan and Hubei the two affected areas and concentrated entire national resources on control and elimination of the virus desease.
On 18 March 2020 there were no fresh cases of Covid-19 infection in China and the virus came under sustantial control after over 81,000 infections and over 3,200 deaths.
The Klashmiris are still caged like guinea pigs and Covid-19 has spread to 199 countries on the last count.
The number of infected world population now about 700 thousand is rising by a compound rate of about 10% per day. The total number of dead is nearly 32 thousand and is growing at compound rate of about 12% per day.
Oddly enough USA is the current pack leader in infections while the Europeans seem to be competing in fatality.
In Asia, Iran is the only country after China with uniquely constant but alarming infection and fatallity. The virus has reached Pakistan through Iran probably taking the same route as Kubhushan Yadev.
The numbers are easily available on web and are changing so fast that quoting them seems futile.
Round the clock info can be obtained from the below URL:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
There is a string of reports about new test equipment, medicines, vaccines etc being developed to combat the epidemic. Let us hope that the losses and damages will be minimized.
The world may not be the same again after Covid-19. However, the most important question is 'what lessons will mankind learn from this misadventure?'

We can only wait and see.

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Sunday, March 22, 2020

Covid-19 in Pakistan


There is a lot of talk about lockdown or curfew in Pakistan to restrict the spread of covid-19. No one is mentioning the constitutional or legal provision for it. 
Since the govetnment does not have a complete register of labour force, it may result in a disaster. Lockdown may work in urban areas with strong social service NGO networks such as Karachi. With quick surveys and logistic arrangements it may be implemented in many orher cities. It will be very difficult to implement in rural areas. If not overseen strictly it may give rise to malssive corruption and exoitation.
Moreover, so far there has been not a single report of infection in rural areas.  More staltitics are needed to develop a strategy for rural areas. But time is of essence.
PM Imran Khan's hesitation is understandable. CM Murad Shah's confidence is based on the resolve of Karachi NGOs. We shall see what happens in other parts of Sindh.