THE IMF QUAGMIRE

IMF is known to be the world's most powerful financial institution. Its board of trustees consists of representatives from various governments who have contributed its seed capital. Hence the IMF is not answerable to anybody except the largest shareholder. They are said to have the world's largest team of highest ranked economists and financial experts. They specialize in formulating mathematical models of a country's economy and analyze it. Probably they use Einstein’s tensors and supercomputers to execute their analyses. However, since my knowledge is limited to Newtonian mechanics, I would try to convey my observations in a language that my wife would understand. Blogging, in any case, is love’s labor. From close scrutiny of the terrific things that have happened in countries that sought assistance from IMF in their hour of peril, it seems that there exists an IMF dollar that makes the ordinary US dollar disappear. Wherever this august institution extends its helping hand, severe scarcity of US dollars takes place and its price in local currency inflates, often to determined levels. This inflation of the dollar or in other words the devaluation of the local currency creates contrasting scenarios when viewed from different perspectives. To the IMF actuaries who maintain accounts in US dollars, it results in the shrinking of the local debt in dollar terms dollars and the total debt in current dollars reduces. That is a good indicator. However, the local economists notes that whereas the local currency debt is constant the local currency equivalent of the dollar or other currency debts has increased in proportion of the devaluation and the total national debt in local currency has increased and a larger chunk of tax collected would go into debt servicing. It actually happens that way. The tale of woes does not end there. If the GDP in local currency remains the same or increases at a rate less than the devaluation, then the GDP in current dollars will register a hefty decline. That would be a bad indicator and cause embarrassment. Now, the local currency GDP can be increased in two ways; either by rapidly increasing the volume of indigenous production or by instantly inflating the costs of goods and services. The former requires dynamism, capital goods to expand industries, finding new markets, additional skilled labor, and increased supply of raw materials assuming that additional capital is available. The latter is extremely easy, it just requires mismanagement. So, the cost of local goods and services must inflate to bring the local currency GDP to such a level that current dollar GDP exceeds the previous year’s value. A simple numerical example should suffice to elucidate the complicated logic. Thanks to the IMF economic package USD parity grew from 100 to 160 PKR. Soon price of wheat flour rose from 40 to Rs. 64 per kg and sugar, rice, vegetables, meat, poultry, clothing, stationery, and everything else followed suit except salaries of civil servants; therefore, bribe rates and police extortion were upgraded accordingly. Now all indicators are good, and the IMF has done a great favor to this Godforsaken nation.

Looking Back

Here is an excerpt from one of my old manuscripts which may seem pertinent in the present perspective:

This author’s thinking is based on the hypothesis that the universe has been objectively engineered with intended perfection, but in order to allow a certain freedom of action and eventual accountability there could be an intentional margin of deviation in God's creations. After all, the disobedience of Satan must have been documented in the Holy Qur’an with a purpose. True that God is perfect, but nowhere has He proclaimed that any of His creations is also perfect. The imperfection of His creations by no means diminishes His own greatness.

Scientists had surmised that the Earth and the Moon had condensed from hot gases that had spilled off the Sun, but recent discoveries haves shown that the compositions of the Earth and the Moon differ from the Sun suggesting that the two were formed at some remote spot in space and launched in orbit around the Sun as also hinted in Verses 5 to 10 of Chapter 55 in Qur’an.  It is possible that the Earth was targeted to be inclined at a quarter of a right angle to its orbital plane, but actually it turned out to be 23.5 degrees i.e. one degree more, or that the year was meant to be exactly 360 days and not 365 and a quarter as it actually is or that the lunar cycle was meant to be exactly thirty days but it strayed a little to twenty nine and a half or so. A 30 day lunar month and a 360 day year would seemingly have been a perfect combination; the phase of the moon would indicate the date and the constellation would show the month and if we looked keenly enough in the sky we might find a way to count the years as well. But since we cannot change it we have no choice but to accept it as God’s wisdom. However, we can change the course of rivers, harness the winds, seed clouds for rain and defy gravity by flying machines to our advantage as God has given us authority over the material universe – and we must advise and help others in finding the right way of life.

Similarly, disease, natural disasters and evils exist not because those were created by God as spontaneous expressions of His wrath but as a consequence of the imperfections of the creations; and God has set in motion a process of evolution and guidance of human beings for the rectification of these defects and for improvement in the quality of His creations. Adam failed the first test he was put to and Satan rebelled on the first command he did not like. The merciful God surely would not have built maladies, perversions and disasters into His perfect plan of creation. Reflection on the relevant texts of the holy Qur’an and the Bible suggests that the earth was originally planned to be a paradise and eventually after its destruction and the Day of Judgment it will be reconstructed as Paradise (Verse 36:81) for the pious and noble souls to live in absolute bliss forever free from all natural disasters, bacteria, viruses and diseases with plentiful supply of the most relished foods that will never become stale. The perfect world to be created then is destined to last forever.

Even more important is the fact that all the tangible knowledge of Physics, chemistry, biology, electronics, mechanics and much of mathematics that is or will ever be written in books is already at work in the human body and in the environment around us. Birds can fly because they are aerodynamically designed by God and they are born with the knowledge of aerodynamics so that they may glide or propel themselves in air and take off and land safely. Man is not discovering Science, but only learning to express what is already inherent in him, and so is woman who is born with the ability to form a baby inside her. The rest is speculation.

Military and Religion

Military and religious forces have played very significant roles in the formation of history and shaping the political geography of the earth.

The military is based on the instinct of freedom and religion on the instinct of faith which are quite diverse but individually admirable. However, both have had in places much less admired consequences and have some common characteristics.

Points of similarity between military and religious establishments are:

1. Both have an autocratic top boss.

2. Both have well defined hierarchies.

3. Both have strict dicipline.

4. Both have special education and training.

5. Both have distinctive attire or uniforms.

6. Both demand absolute loyalty from rank and file.

7. Both work in the name of a supreme authority to whom people do not have direct access.

8. Both contribute naught their country's GNP.

9. Both exploit fear of the unknown, the enemy across the border or life after death.

10. Both are quite prosperous.

Conversation in Heaven 4

Q: What has been done to give mankind a last chance?
A: A virus has been spread to persuade them to change their habits. They call it covid-19.

Q: How does it work?
A: Due to fear of infection they are staying home and refraining from immoral and promiscuous activities.

Q: How will ideological contamination be removed?
A: Congregations have been stopped and sectarian and religious brain washing has reduced considerably. Given a break, many will realize the futility of their superstitions and the absurdity of what they regard as scriptures.

Q: Is it more effective than AIDS?
A: Many times, as movement and contact is restricted.

Q: What areas are covered?
A: Entire world simultaneously.

Q: How will cognitive aberrations be removed.
A: They are taking food to strengthen immune system. This would improve chemical balance and clear confusions.

Q: How will the distorted knowledge base be rectified.
A: People with reformed intellect will produce literature to replace the old polluted and misleading syllabi and texts.

Q: Are people available to perform the above mission.
A: Yes, but they are not prominent.

Man-made Epidemic

On 18 March 1915 Bill Gates gave Ted talk on possible next virus epidemic and its consequences. He is likely to have been helped by some conaciencious Indian born American senior executives of Microsoft.
Ebola virus was contained within 3 West African countries by effective isolation from the rest of the world.
On 5 August 2019 India embarked on an experiment of large scale lockdown involving 8 million people in Kashmir. The human tragedy in the denial of all fundamental human rights to 8 million people for no reason should have shaken the earth. But everyone except some nondescript busybodies chose to look the other way. India must have shared the data acquired in the first three months with its close allies.
It takes only a few hours to do a complete dna sequencing of a virus and there is adequate data on characteristics and influence of dna fragments to be able to splice them into new viruses of desired characteristics.
US, India and Israel formed a nexus to harm and eventually destroy the emerging international influence of China.
On 31 December 2019 WHO reported mysterious pneumonia sickening dozens in China which was later recognized as novel Corpnavirus and the outbreak was named Covid-19.
China imposed complete lockdown on Wuhan and Hubei the two affected areas and concentrated entire national resources on control and elimination of the virus desease.
On 18 March 2020 there were no fresh cases of Covid-19 infection in China and the virus came under sustantial control after over 81,000 infections and over 3,200 deaths.
The Klashmiris are still caged like guinea pigs and Covid-19 has spread to 199 countries on the last count.
The number of infected world population now about 700 thousand is rising by a compound rate of about 10% per day. The total number of dead is nearly 32 thousand and is growing at compound rate of about 12% per day.
Oddly enough USA is the current pack leader in infections while the Europeans seem to be competing in fatality.
In Asia, Iran is the only country after China with uniquely constant but alarming infection and fatallity. The virus has reached Pakistan through Iran probably taking the same route as Kubhushan Yadev.
The numbers are easily available on web and are changing so fast that quoting them seems futile.
Round the clock info can be obtained from the below URL:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
There is a string of reports about new test equipment, medicines, vaccines etc being developed to combat the epidemic. Let us hope that the losses and damages will be minimized.
The world may not be the same again after Covid-19. However, the most important question is 'what lessons will mankind learn from this misadventure?'

We can only wait and see.

.

Covid-19 in Pakistan

There is a lot of talk about lockdown or curfew in Pakistan to restrict the spread of covid-19. No one is mentioning the constitutional or legal provision for it. 
Since the govetnment does not have a complete register of labour force, it may result in a disaster. Lockdown may work in urban areas with strong social service NGO networks such as Karachi. With quick surveys and logistic arrangements it may be implemented in many orher cities. It will be very difficult to implement in rural areas. If not overseen strictly it may give rise to malssive corruption and exoitation.
Moreover, so far there has been not a single report of infection in rural areas.  More staltitics are needed to develop a strategy for rural areas. But time is of essence.
PM Imran Khan's hesitation is understandable. CM Murad Shah's confidence is based on the resolve of Karachi NGOs. We shall see what happens in other parts of Sindh.

Overseas Pakistanis

Pakistanis' Economic Contribution Worldwide                                      (countries with over 20,000 pakistanis)
Serial No.	Country	No of Pakistanis	pc gdp usd	Contribution USD
1	saudi arabia	2,700,000	22,865	61,735,500,000
2	uk	1,520,000	41,030	62,365,600,000
3	uae	1,210,000	37,749	45,676,290,000
4	usa	550,000	65,111	35,811,050,000
5	oman	235,000	17,791	4,180,885,000
6	france	165,000	41,760	6,890,400,000
7	canada	205,000	46,212	9,473,460,000
8	kuwait	130,000	29,266	3,804,580,000
9	qatar	150,000	69,687	10,453,050,000
10	bahrain	112,000	25,273	2,830,576,000
11	malaysia	120,000	11,136	1,336,320,000
12	italy	110,000	32,946	3,624,060,000
13	south africa	100,000	6,100	610,000,000
14	greece	90,000	19,974	1,797,660,000
15	spain	82,000	29,961	2,456,802,000
16	germany	72,000	46,563	3,352,536,000
17	afghanistan	72,000	513	36,936,000
18	thailand	66,000	7,791	514,206,000
19	australia	60,000	53,825	3,229,500,000
20	norway	42,000	77,975	3,274,950,000
21	netherland	40,000	52,367	2,094,680,000
22	denmark	35,000	59,795	2,092,825,000
23	22 countries	7,866,000	Total	267,641,866,000
24	pakistan total gdp in 2019 for 220 million people			usd 284.21 billion
prepared by mnasim_99@yahoo.com.